Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
