Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
