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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd